Zug vs Geneva Series Preview
An ... expected final?
Specialists were expecting Zug and Geneva in the top-3 in the League, second and third respectively, and behind the favorite, Zürich. As such, it shouldn’t be surprising to find these two teams at this stage. What’s a bit more surprising is Geneva most recent streak with seven consecutive win, but also seeing Zug having some issues against Bern in the quarter-final. In its semi-final, Zug just beat Rapperswil 3-1, with a 6-3 victory in the last game.
But beware of the results because Geneva and Zug were quite challenged in the semi-finals. In terms of expected goals, Zug had a slight edge over Rapperswil with 13-12, but it was able to score 17 goals to 8 thanks to the skills of its forwards and a solid goaltending performance from Genoni. For Geneva, they had as much success against Zürich despite a series with 7 expected goals for each team. The score was 10-3 for Geneva, thanks to Manzato’s prowess.
The play at 5v5
Prepare for a quest to perfect defence as this series will be played in the slot, and and it will be up to whichever makes the fewest mistakes.
There’s no need to present Zug’s offence again and the importance it puts on shot quality instead of quantity. Only sixth in the League for shot attempts per 60 minutes, Zug was first in expected goals. A quick look at the heatmap above shows how Zug tries to find the slot and try to generate the most dangerous chances, instead shooting from everywhere. A statistic to illustrate this is the way Zug manages its rushes. The team was only tenth in the proportion of chances coming from rushes (with 24.4%) but was second in scoring chances generated on rushes! On a Zug’s rush, don’t expect a shot from outisde, but more probably some passing plays in the slot.
Yet, this could be in Geneva’s advantage, which defends pretty well against thoses passes to the slot (“high-danger passes”) this season (second in the League in pass attempts from its opponents), as it aggressively presses the puck carrier to reduce his options. It’s a risky strategy if the puck carrier is able to pass, as Geneva tends to let some huge space when it can commit without defensive support and especially against a skillful team like Zug. Also, Geneva had some issues protecting the front of the net (as you can see on the heatmap). It will need to be even more conscientious than usual … as they are playing the final.
On the other hand, it’s nearly the same. Like Zug, Geneva doesn’t product a massive amount of shot attempts. It’s one of the teams in the League which generates the least chances on the rush. In the offensive zone, Geneva also creates its chances through high-danger passes. It’s the second team in the League in terms of attempts, but it’s the best team in the League in terms of success on these passes.
Like Geneva, Zug defends pretty well against this type of chances. As if a defence learned from its own offence … Yet, contrarily to Geneva, Zug’s defence around its own net was better (as you can see on the heatmap). But Rapperswil showed that it was possible to beat Zug’s defence, with 6 of their 8 goals coming on high-danger passes.
In this game of chess, the key will not only be on how many times a team will surprise the opposite defence, but also how goaltending will provide help to their teammates. And at this game, the two starting goalies are on fire.
If the series against Rapperswil seemed complicated, it was mainly because the games took a long time to settle. But for Zug, Genoni watched over. In four games, he saved 3.7 goals above expected, had a solid Shot control % of 72% (League average is at 66%). He was only surprised by high-danger passes and a few plays from behind the net.
For Geneva, Daniel Manzato is playing way above his head right now. Yes, he’s very solid for the moment with a 75% Shot control %, but everything he does works. At some point, reality will catch up as nobody can keep a 96.1% save percentage, nor save more than 1 goal per game. We talked about Waeber and Nyffeler bubbles that broke in the semi-finals. Let’s hope for Geneva that Manzato can manage his as long as possible.
Power-play and penalty-kill
Both in the playoffs and in the regular season, Zug and Geneva are amongst the best in both situations, but Geneva has had the best results so far.
On the penalty-kill, both teams have better results in terms of goals against, shot attempts against and chances against than during the regular season. Both teams also benefited from excellent goaltending so far, with save percentages better than during the season. The League average save percentage ? 88.8%. With a save percentage above 92% for Zug and 94% for Geneva, goalies have been crucial.
For Geneva, as we said in our series preview against Zürich, Descloux is probably their best player in this situation and probably the best goalie in the league over the three last seasons, with a 92.21% save percentage. To put things in perspective, over the same period, Genoni has an 87.28% save percentage, Berra an 88.86%, Stephan an 88.79% and Manzato an 85.96%. A huge difference that enables Geneva to be among the best teams.
If both teams have similar numbers and heatmaps on the penalty-kill, we can see that they have a different approach on the power-play.
For Zug, hard to see a clear pattern on the heatmap. They have many ways to create chances on the power-play, using both Hofmann or Kovar on their strong side or usual position, Zug’s defencemen shot more than Geneva’s and Zug uses all its 5 players (incl. the front-man and bumper) more than the League average (red zones). As such, Zug is less predictable and harder to defend against. For the EVZ, execution will be key and if it does, Zug has one of the best PP in the League.
For Geneva, the power-play still works, with a 29.03% percent success and 20.03% shot percentage (the League average is a bit more than 11%). Looking at Geneva’s heatmap, we can see that the team shots less than the League average, as we can see in its numbers (Corsi and expected goals). As for the play at 5v5, and as mentioned in the series preview against Zürich, the model used by NL Ice Data doesn’t include pre-shot movements (as it is not publicly available) and may as such underrate GSHC’s underlying play, which relies a lot on high-danger passes.
Finally, can we say that Geneva is playing over its head on the power-play? Probably. Either way, discipline may be a key to this series.
Projections
One good thing in uniting Magnus Corsi and NLice Data in this project is that we can compare our projection models. Every model is different and is based on what its author deemed relevant to include, normally what historically leads to winning hockey games. One main difference here is that Cédric (NL Ice Data) is using team performance metrics and Thibaud (Magnus Corsi) is using player values.
Player value in hockey can be measured with “all-in one” stats like WAR, GAR or such. In a league with less data available, Thibaud is using Win Shares, a stat that looks at offensive and defensive performances from the last 3 seasons to assess how many wins a player brings to his team over a full season. In the graphs below, you can see the Win Shares value of each player and where in the league that player ranks.
Thibaud’s model gives Zug an edge of 55.1% in this Final. Seven forwards rank in the top tiers (above 66th percentile) of the league for Win Shares, Gregory Hoffman standing at the very top while being worth 3.2 wins. And the “bad students” Albrecht, Bachofner or Leuenberger are all above the 40th, so nothing to be ashamed of.
At the blue line, Raphael Diaz ranks at the 98th percentile among defensemen and Alatalo at the 93th. Like the forwards lines, that defensive squad is very deep and replacing Cadonau with Gross is actually an improvement according to the model.
Geneva has 8 forwards above the 50th percentile, with 3 import players in the top 10% of the league (with Fehr at 89%). Linus “fucking playoffs player” Omark so far proved he could produce according to his status in this post-season. We will in fact get to see an opposition between the two top forwards in the league according to the model with Hofmann and Omark being at the 100% percentile. The trade for Vermin and Moy in exchange of Douay, Maillard, Cajka and Bozon so far pays off and Geneva can ice three lines capable of producing offensively. The 4th line remains, however, a notch below and would be a target for the fast and technical Zug 4th in their respective match-up.
At the blue line, Tömmernes ranks at the 99th percentile in the league and actually is the best defenseman still playing in the NLA, as the 100th percentile was owned by Erik Brännstrom. Jacquemet, Völlmin, Karrer and Le Coultre are all top4 defensemen and gives Geneva a very solid group on the back end. But the main concern will actually be the Tömmernes-Jacquemet pair.
With over 25mn of ice time per game, the Swede played in all situations, was blocking shots and looked like he owned the series against Zürich. But looking deeper into the numbers, Tömmernes ended the series with a -15 shot differential (corsi) against the Lions and 44% of expected goals. Versus Fribourg, he was at 42% of expected goals. We can see in the graph below, the top pair was part of the Geneva players under pressure against Zürich and if the goals didn’t get in for Andrighetto & co, they can only thank Manzato for that.
Facing the best offence in the league in this Final, Geneva must hope that Tömmernes controls the game like he does it usually (a strong 55% of expected goals with him on the ice this season).
Key players
Manzato must delay his return to earth for as long as he can. No one should ask him to be a wall and keep his 97.3% save percentage but only to keep Geneva in the game and not blow up a game. In a best of 5 series, giving up one could be fatal.
If Geneva will need its star players to all be at their best (Omark, Winnik, Tömmernes), Zug can count on numerous options to find a savior. One thing is certain, with Diaz, Hofmann and Alatalo leaving this summer, that team will want to end that cycle with a title. And will be under pressure to succeed as well.
The National League Conn Smythe Trophy goes to…
It is way too soon obviously and we will have to wait to know the winning team.
For Geneva, with his extraterrestrial performances, Manzato, would be an easy pick if the Cup goes to Servette. With 11 points in 8 games, including 7 on the Power Play, Tömmernes could be another name. But we saw his impact on the game is rather negative so far. Or Linus “fucking playoffs player” Omark with his 10 points, 9 of them being primary assists.
For Zug, it could be Hofmann, Kovar, Klingberg, Diaz, Abdelkader, or anybody having the best series inside that group, even if Kovar should be a bit ahead. Or Genoni to just avoid the debate.
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All stats tracked by Thibaud are available freely on his Tableau page. : https://public.tableau.com/profile/thibaud.chatel#!/vizhome/NLAPlayoffs2021/GameReport
And other stats compiled from the league are on the NL Ice Data website : nlicedata.com