Even with the addition of Linus Omark, Tyler Moy and Joël Vermin, very few people had predicted that Genève would reach the Final. But with a solid roster on paper, led by arguably one of the best forwards in the league, the best defenceman and the best goaltender, and a smart game plan, the “Grenat” were indeed a real contender. Not enough to push around a mighty team of Zug but that was promising.
So, can Genève do it again?
The first element is, of course, the absence of Linus Omark, who went back to Sweden for personal reasons, at least for this season. Eric Fehr retired too, which means the club had to replace two key leaders on the ice. But GM Marc Gautschi saw to that by signing Marc-Antoine Pouliot, with the possibility that he will become a Swiss licence player soon. And Valtteri Filppula is the official substitute for Omark.
The rest of the team has remained the same and the staff as well, so there is a good chance Genève will continue to offer a hockey based on two words: simple but smart.
Last season, Genève was particularly focused on the key areas of the ice: the two slots. No matter how the puck would get into the offensive zone, once there, Genève was the most active in trying high-danger passes to take defences by surprise and force goalies to move. Without any solution, the puck was sent back to the point for a shot. Simple but smart. And same on the power-play, with above average finishers to put the puck in.
Defensively, Genève would not commit too much in the forecheck but would focus on the neutral zone and blocking zone entries, forcing dumps and turnovers. Aware of their own recipe, they would also try to limit high-danger passes as much as possible. However, Genève allowed quite a lot of high-danger chances as you can see on the left of the heatmap. So there is room for improvement there.
How would that plan work without Linus Omark? We talked to video coach Kevin Oulevey: “We want to keep it simple, not looking for that extra play that would put us in danger. We want to be smart and efficient, create plays and use the talent of our players.”
Roster for the 2021-22 Season
Remember: Explanation on our Win Shares and projection models is here
Player and goalie ID cards legend is here
The team will continue to be split between key elements at the top of the roster and young players in development for depth. A commitment very important for the team that also has implications for how the bottom-6 will play on the ice.
“We signed some good players. Valtteri Filppula is already showing great things, he came to play and wants to work hard. He is really driven, even at 37 years old!” said Kevin Oulevey.
Filppula remained fairly consistent for a guy his age, in a NHL now powered by young players. He scored the equivalent of 47, 33 and 43 NL points the past few years. We have him projected at 40 points and the 79th percentile for his 1.7 Win Shares. This is not Linus Omark who finished the season at 3.2 Win Shares but he is an interesting addition given the hockey wanted by Patrick Emond.
Daniel Winnik is the best forward in the team according to our model, with a 48 points projection and the 89th percentile for Win Shares. He also is at the very top for Defence and Shot assists.
Marc-Antoine Pouliot will bring his all around game along with his presence around the net. Projected at 41 points, he is in the top 20% in all of Transition, Play building, shot assists and shot volume. Also shows up very high in our Defence metric.
Noah Rod is probably underrated. Yeah, you heard right. At just 25 years old, he brings a special brand of hockey with him. Very responsible defensively, he specializes in building few but high quality plays in the offensive zone. He was one of the few to destabilize that Zug’s defence in the Final.
Tanner Richard is another player very responsible defensively and a passer in the offensive zone, much like Winnik.
Joël Vermin is important for Transition and Play Building ahead of the offensive zone.
The one thing that Genève will have to worry about is finishing all those plays. The team had really good success when they had shooters on the ice last year (Riat, Asselin and Omark of course). Moy might be called to step up in the line up for his shooting ability.
Then it is up to the young players to jump on the ice, with also a tendency to put a young one with two veterans higher in the line up.
“Patry and Smirnovs keep progressing. They will have more ice time this year. Even on a 4th line, we want them to use their talent and play with the puck. There is no plumbers on our 4th.” mentioned Kevin Oulevey.
A trust that comes with a “cost”, Genève only has the 7th best forwards group according to our model, with that bottom-6 of young players but mostly no elite forwards above the 90th percentile. Will the system compensate for that lack of elite players?
At the blue line
But let’s move to Genève’s strengths. The defence is the second best in the league on paper. It is deep and balanced on at least three pairs.
Of course, everything begins with Henrik Tömmernes, the best D-man in the league according to our model with 3.5 Win Shares and 39 points projected. He is the best offensive defenceman and also ranks at 99 for Defence. His performance in our tracking is really incredible, being the best for Transition and Shot assists while also at the 94th percentile for Play building and 97th for shots volume…
Arnaud Jacquemet is his usual partner on the ice. He has one of the best defensive value in the league and ranks very high for shot assists. The perfect complement to Tömmernes.
Roger Karrer is at the 77th percentile, showing a well rounded game in development. Not that active on Transition, he is a passer in the offensive zone.
Simon Le Coultre could still become an elite defenceman. He is offensive minded for sure but with good performances to back that up. In our tracking, he is close to the top 10% of the league for all of Transition, Play building, Shot assists and Shots volume.
Behind that top-4, Michael Völlmin is another well rounded player capable to step up if needed while Jonathan Mercier is more defensive minded but with a big shot. Marco Maurer is purely effective on defence only but still injured for now. Then it is up to the younger players to grab a spot. Among them is Sandis Smons, of whom Kevin Oulevey talked greatly: “He learnt a lot. He had some ice time last year and will continue to show very interesting things this season.”
Goalies
Gauthier Descloux is the best goaltender in the league according to our model. He is worth 5.5 Win Shares over a season and projected at 93 save%. Last year he provided a Quality start (allowing less goals than expected) 60% of the time and save almost 7 goals over the season. His size forces him to play an unusual style, moving a lot to meet pucks, which leads to a lower Save control% than average but that is a special case.
Projection for the season
Our model projects all games in the season to get a projected standings. Note that points are given according to game probabilities, meaning if team A gets a low 33% chance of winning a game, they get still 1 expected point (33% of 3pts). That is why, right now, even Ajoie is projected at 63 pts. But what matters is the relative difference between teams as you will see then the standings is revealed.
With that roster, Genève is projected to end somewhere between 3rd and 5th, before turning their eyes to the Playoffs.
For Kevin Oulevey, though, ambitions need to be taken one step a time: “We aim for the top-6, avoiding the pre-playoffs. That extra week of rest was very important last year and helped in our playoffs run. We will push to get there because it is worth the effort, really. Then we will see.”
Once thing for sure, Genève will not be a surprise anymore comes spring.
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You can also find some more statistics on NL Ice Data here: nlicedata.com