In any given league, it is already hard enough to win the cup two years in a row. When many of your leaders have left during the summer? Even more difficult. That is the challenge Zug will be facing this season.
Let’s not kid ourselves, Zug has signed some very good players to replace the holes left by Raphael Diaz, Santeri Alatalo, Erik Thorell or Gregory Hofmann. This is still a huge challenge to undertake but, hopefully, the game plan designed by Dan Tangnes will continue to maximize the roster’s strengths.
Zug was simply the best team in the league last season. That was not up for discussion. They dominated games, playing a modern and smart brand of hockey you just enjoy watching night after night.
And to be clear, it is not just a matter of talent. Zug was really playing smart, using all the latest strategies the younger generation of coaches and analysts are praising.
From controlled exits and zone entries, to the heavy use of high-danger passes in the offensive zone, to a forecheck aiming at shutting down opportunities in the neutral zone and not hitting bodies in the offensive zone, Zug was controlling games from A to Z, shutting down defensively and creating a lot offensively.
And yes, if you add an above average roster and a star goaltender, you get a machine that crushed the league.
Will it be the same this season?
Roster for the 2021-22 Season
Remember: Explanation on our Win Shares and projection models is here
Player and goalie ID cards legend is here
The one element remaining from last season is MVP Jan Kovar. The Czech shares the highest points projection in the league with Roman Cervenka at 58, and ranks at the 99th percentile for his 2.7 Win Shares. He has the best defensive value in our Win Shares component and the second best offensively. In our tracking he is among the best in Play Building and Shot assists. But his real talent is to make the best out of his opportunities thanks to his natural talent. Simply put, he doesn’t need ten chances to create a goal…
Fabrice Herzog is a new face this year but one sets to leave a trace. He just took two giant steps up in Davos and is now at the 95th percentile and projected at 37 points. A real offensive player, he does well in Transition and is a shooter.
Dario Simion also had a breakthrough season with 45 points. He stands at the 89th percentile in Transition and does well in the other departments too. We have him projected at 33 points.
Anton Lander arrives from the KHL where he scored the equivalent if 54, 41 and 42 NL points. We have him projected at 43 points and the 87th percentile.
Karl Klingberg is projected at 36 points and his two way games put him at the 86th percentile with 2 Win Shares. He is one of the best in Play building as he is quite active in the offensive zone, passing and shooting.
Still above the 80th percentile is Yannick Zehnder, who is on an impressive development curve. Not a passer, he is very good at Building Plays through transition and offering solutions in the offensive zone with his shot.
Reto Suri is another smart signing, well a return after two years away in Lugano. At 32 years old, he might be on a decline but he is a system first player who can adapt to a role up or down the line up. Good defensively, he is complete in all of Transition, Play building, shot assists and shots volume.
With Lino Martschini at the 74th percentile and Sven Senteler at the 53rd, Zug has a top-9 well above average but it is that heavy armored top-6 that makes a real difference, giving Zug the second best offensive squad, on paper, in the league.
At the blue line
With the departures of both leaders Diaz and Alatalo (and Geisser as well), Zug decided to sign two import players to fill the gap, but also added a very smart signing.
That is Samuel Kreis, who ranks at the 94th percentile in our model with 2.3 Win Shares. His defensive value is very high and his Shot assists are elite, hence participating greatly in Play building. Coming out from his best year to date, it will be very intriguing to see him going in a system like Zug.
First import is Christian Djoos, coming straight from Detroit. We have him projected at 35 points and 1.6 Win Shares but he was at 43 points and 2.1 Win Shares two years ago in the AHL, in a role more similar. So watch out.
Second import is Niklas Hansson coming from SHL where he was consistent with seasons equivalent to 27 and 26 NL points. So naturally we have him projected at 27 points…
With Nico Gross at the 65th percentile and Dominik Schlumpf at the 55th, Zug has a solid group but then Dario Wüthrich is at 39 and Claudio Cadonau 21… Djoos and Hansson could very well exceed their projections but so far Zug has the 6th best defence, on paper, lacking another elite guy above the 90th bar like they had before.
Goalies
No need to introduce Leonardo Genoni… He was great during the regular season and amazing comes the playoffs… Steady and consistent, his Win Shares is only brought down because of a 2020 season that was below his usual standards.
But Zug can also count on a very good back-up in Luca Hollenstein. He was dominant in his 13 games last year (and even better with the EVZ Academy). In our tracking he saved 7 goals, more than 0.5 per game ! Provided a Quality start (allowing less goals then expected) 67% of the time, one of the best ratio in the league, and also performed better than expected on his Save control% (saves that put pucks out of danger). A free agent at the end of the year, he could be a real prize next summer for another team.
Projection for the season
Our model projects all games in the season to get a projected standings. Note that points are given according to game probabilities, meaning if team A gets a low 33% chance of winning a game, they get still 1 expected point (33% of 3pts). That is why, right now, even Ajoie is projected at 63 pts. But what matters is the relative difference between teams as you will see then the standings is revealed.
Before the Malgin/welltheycanplaywith5imports thing, Zug was projected first in the league with a decent cushion on the others. Now they are down to second but the quality of the Tangnes’ system could very well enable a second title in a row. If the new pieces adapt well.
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You can also find some more statistics on NL Ice Data here: nlicedata.com