Let’s be honest, we kinda like Bienne (sorry French writers here). As analysts, we tend to like teams that play a brand of hockey based on concepts like puck possession, controlled transition and such. I know, you don’t always win like this but… It is how the best teams in the world are playing these years.
Anyway, Bienne showed up positively in a lot of statistical categories the past two years and the sudden absence of Antti Törmänen and the season long interim by Lars Leuenberger didn’t change that fact as the team continued to play according to the same philosophy.
Bienne ranked very high on both zone exits and entries, keeping the puck on their sticks and moving forward into the offensive zone. They were also third in the league for high-danger passes, putting the puck into the slot.
Overall, we both had Bienne third in the league for the Expected Goals% at 5v5, right behind Zug and Zurich. Defence was among the best but you can see the barrage of shots coming at the other goalie in the offensive zone. There should be room for improvement though, with probably not enough high-danger chances created. Less quantity but more quality is often what you want.
However, goalies allowed about 10 more goals than expected and shooters barely managed to score the number of expected goals themselves. A double underachievement that pushed Bienne down to the pre-playoffs. With multiple key players injured, they lost to a combat ready team of Rapperswil-Jona.
On that disappointment, the team entered the summer knowing some major changes were about to happen. The good news is Antti Törmänen will be back behind the bench (not that Lars Leuenberger wasn’t good). But Janis Moser is gone to the NHL, Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Jason Fuchs, Samuel Kreis, Konstantin Komarek and Petteri Lindbohm signed elsewhere and Perttu Lindgren might sadly call it a career for the sake of his health.
Roster for the 2021-22 Season
Remember: Explanation on our Win Shares and projection models is here
Player and goalie ID cards legend is here
Losing Moser to the NHL means Bienne could ice five import players every night but so far they only have signed four. And they made the choice of getting two defencemen and one forward to complement Toni Rajala.
Bienne’s roster has the potential of icing three solid lines before witnessing a drop in depth value, on both offense and defence.
Upfront, Damien Brunner remains the best forward according to our model, ranking at the 90th percentile for his 2.2 Win Shares. We have Brunner projected at 38 points as he might be feeling the age curve kicking in. He remains among the very best volume shooters in the league though and if he is not very active on Transition or Play Building, both his Offense and Defence metrics are very very high.
Luca Cunti had two great seasons since his arrival in Bienne. At 32 years old, we have him projected at 32 points and the 84th percentile. He is a transition beast and very impactful on Defence as well. The kind of all-around center you want in your top-6.
Fabio Hofer had the best season of his NL career. The small forward ranks very high in our tracking for Play Building, Shot assists and shot volume. With great metrics on both Offense and Defence as well.
The new guy in that group is Jere Sallinen, coming from Liiga where he scored the equivalent of 37 and 39 NL points. We have him projected at 34 this season.
Toni Rajala fell down from his 2019 ceiling but still ranks at the 83rd percentile and we have him at 41 points. He is simply the most active shooter in the league, sometimes from crazy position but what the hell… Not a passer, he still participates on Transition and Play Building.
We could also talk about Michael Hügli being ranked at the 99th percentile for Play Building, Luca Hischier being at the 95th also on Play Building or Mike Künzle defensive prowess, showing as effective that Bienne roster can be. But let’s look at the return of Gaëtan Haas, who signed until 2026.
Role player in the NHL, with very good defensive numbers, his projection of 30 points might be conservative as he was a 40 points guy before leaving for North America. During his stint last season, we tracked him to be one of the best in Transition and shot volume, but his NL defensive stats brought his Win Shares value down (be aware of the small sample size alert here). He might very well be (and probably is) better than that.
Even with a fourth line at a lower level, and additional players very much on the fringe of the league, Bienne has the 5th best offensive group in the league according to our model.
On the blue line
Losing Moser is a tough blow for sure, as the young man showcased such a mature possession driving play last year, especially thanks to his excellent defensive play. Samuel Kreis should be a very underrated loss as well for his defensive play and shot assists.
Yannick Rathgeb has one more year to play in Bienne and could step up to really take control of that blue line for good. He ranks at the 95th percentile for his 2.4 Win Shares and the model has him to score 30 points. He is a shooter for sure but also a top player on Transition and his defensive play is much better than what we can hear sometimes.
Probably not the perfect defenceman, but probably better than his reputation.
By his side will be two import players, Alexander Yakovenko, projected at 35 points arriving from Liiga and who will remember the locker room from his 2 games played in 2020…
Viktor Lööv arrives from the KHL and has a much lower scoring profile, if we look at his seasons equivalent of 21, 12 and 24 NL points. We have him at the 60th percentile for his Win Shares but defensive play could rise that value once the season starts.
The smart move was to add Robin Grossman who was looking for an exit from Lausanne. Projected at just 13 points, Grossmann has great defensive value (88th percentile on Defence), plays a ton of minutes, is involved on Transition and shot assists. He is a nice top-4 player to have.
Like for the forwards group, Bienne has accumulated good, smart players but the lack of true elite talent beside Rathgeb has Bienne with only the 9th defensive corps in the league. But if the two imports are playing better than expected, that could be a nice surprise given the effective game plan Antti Törmänen will surely continue to apply.
Goalies
Joren Van Pottelberghe secured the main job last year but, as we mentioned earlier, his performance could not bring the team to another level. In our tracking he allowed … 0.84 goal more than expected, so a tie really. But he only provided a Quality Start (allowing less goals than expected) 44% of the time, meaning more consistency is needed. His Save control (putting pucks out of danger) needs to improve as well as too many uncontrolled rebounds were allowed.
That being said, what Bienne really needs this season is a better performance from Elien Paupe as a back-up. In 10 games last season, he allowed 8.7 goals more than expected! That is a performance putting him at the bottom of the league and a couple of wins evaporated that would have changed Bienne’s season.
Projection for the season
Our model projects all games in the season to get a projected standings. Note that points are given according to game probabilities, meaning if team A gets a low 33% chance of winning a game, they get still 1 expected point (33% of 3pts). That is why, right now, even Ajoie is projected at 63 pts. But what matters is the relative difference between teams as you will see then the standings is revealed.
Bienne is toe to toe with Fribourg and another team for the 6th spot, which is the ambition of the club, avoiding the pre-playoffs. The uncertainty around the three new imports could boost the team above their opponents. And don’t forget the fifth import that is yet to be announced. And there’s also hoping for better finishing offensively. The upside is there to finish higher than our current prediction.
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You can also find some more statistics on NL Ice Data here: nlicedata.com