Round-robin recap
The Swiss team has had a really convincing Round-Robin both in terms of results, winning 5 games out of 7, and in terms of underlying play. The second place is well deserved and they will face Germany in the quarter finals. In 6 games out of 7, Switzerland was ahead in terms of expected goals. In 5 games out of 7, they were ahead in terms of expected goals at 5v5 and these are the games that were won. Only against Sweden were the Swiss players behind, but it was close, contrarily to the score.
Here, you can find the recap for the seven games as well as the expected goal score for Switzerland:
Game 1 vs. Czech Republic: 3.61xG to 2.63 in all situations, 2.37xG to 1.99 at 5v5
Game 2 vs. Denmark: 4.88xG to 0.24 in all situations, 4.84xG to 0.17 at 5v5
Game 3 vs. Sweden: 2.44xG to 2.47 in all situations, 1.19xG to 1.30 at 5v5
Game 4 vs. Slovakia: 3.75xG to 1.47 in all situations, 2.78xG to 0.86 at 5v5
Game 5 vs. Russia: 2.70xG to 2.21 in all situations, 1.79xG to 2.03 at 5v5
Game 6 vs. Belarus: 4.26xG to 1.67 in all situations, 2.42xG to 0.95 at 5v5
Game 7 vs. Great Britain: 4.55xG to 2.23 in all situations, 3.97xG to 2 at 5v5
Overall, the Swiss team finished the first round with 26.19xG to 13.48 in all situations (27 to 17 in terms of goals) and 19.36xG to 9.30 at 5v5 (16 to 11 in terms of goals). In terms of goals scored, they probably over-performed on the power-play and under-performed at 5v5.
On transition, the team was excellent in most games, posting an average of 69% in controlled exits and an average of 52% in controlled entries.
In the offensive zone and at 5v5, the Swiss players are doing a great job by mainly creating chances with high-danger plays (146 passes tried, with an excellent 41% success rate) and also by scoring on these with 8 goals, out of 16. The Swiss team also dominated in terms of rush scoring chances with a huge 33 to 8 advantage. While their opponents scored 3 goals on such plays, the Swiss players only scored 4 goals.
On the power-play, the Swiss team has been deadly and their two units have shown they can both score (one is the responsibility of Wohlwend and the other of Bayer). The first unit (Hischier - Meier - Kurashev - Corvi - Alatalo) is hard to defend against, as they have multiple ways to create offence, while the second has also been very efficient so far.
On the Penalty Kill, things became a bit complicated at times. It seemed that very technical teams were able to move around the Swiss block and create scoring chances. Belarus was one example. In the end, the other teams also overperformed as they score 5 goals on 3.09xG.
Performance by position
Goaltenders
Overall, the Swiss team didn’t have to rely on his goalies to win or steal games, which is normally indicative of good team performances. We could even say that the three goalies had below average performances as they allowed 2.6 goals above expectations.
Individually, we’ll start by the third goaltender who shouldn’t be on the gamesheet against Germany. Nyffeler played a total of 49:36 minutes, replaced Genoni in the game versus Sweden and replaced Berra in the game against Great Britain, posting a total 85.2% save percentage and allowed 1.04 goal above expectation. He got in in a complicated game against Sweden (allowed 1.64 goal above expectation) but did a job against GB, where his defence was a bit sloppy, as he saved 0.6 goal above expectation.
Genoni was probably the number one in the staff’s mind. He started the tournament against the Czechs, had a decent game, saved 0.57 goal above expectation. But his second game against Sweden maybe weakened his position (it shouldn’t the case in our opinion). In this game, Genoni allowed 2.92 goals above expectation and had a low 53% shot control, but was screened on the 3 of the goals against. Against Belarus, he had a shutout, stopped 17 shots against, saved 1.67 goal above expectations and had an 82% shot control. In total, he only allowed 0.7 goal above expectations (6 for 5.3 expected) in the tournament.
Berra was the most used goalie in this tournament so far, starting in 4 of the 7 games. Against Denmark, he probably had the easiest game of his professional career. Against Slovakia, he stopped 16 of the 17 shots he faced and saved 0.47 goal above expectations. Against Russia and Great Britain, he allowed more goals than expected, but wasn’t helped by his defence on some of the goals. In total, he allowed 1.5 goals above expectations (6 for 4.5 expected) in the tournament.
Defencemen
Among the defencemen, Diaz is probably the Swiss’ best player. If we except his first game against the Czechs, where he had a 45.3 xGF%, he was above or well above 60% in all the other games and had the best xGA/60 (the least quality chances against per 60 minutes of play). He was also excellent in transition, both in defensive zone exits and defensive zone entries.
After a season where he only played 16 games, Müller has been solid so far in the tournament. He has the best xGF% and the second best xGA/60 among defencemen, he hasn’t been on the ice for a goal against at 5v5 but has also been excellent on transition. Without having a bad tournament, in comparison, Geisser has worse numbers in different categories (in transition, xGF%) and hasn’t been able to provide his offensive contribution as he did with Zug this season.
As we noted in our preview, Loeffel is known for his shot, his offensive abilities and his play in transition and has been able to display them in this tournament, with 3 goals and 1 assist so far and a 74% in controlled exits. He mostly played with Siegenthaler who was better than expected on transition. The pairing had a first complicated game against the Czech but their performances have been getting better since.
Moser and Untersander played all their 6 games together (they were benched against Russia) and were maybe the least convincing pairing for the moment. If Moser was one of the best defensive player in the National League this season, he had some struggles handling the pace at the beginning of the tournament or in controlling opposite forwards on zone entries. If Untersander is among the best defencemen in transition in the National League, he has been relatively struggling to get the puck out of the zone on some occasions. In comparison to the other defencemen, this pairing present the worst possession numbers and had more problems getting the puck out of the zone than their teammates.
Heldner played in three games (Sweden, Denmark, Russia) and did well at 5v5 (xGF% of 69%). To our surprise, Frick only played one game during the tournament and it was probably against the best team the Swiss faced in this tournament so far, Russia. His pairing with Heldner did pretty well at 5v5 (xGF% of 62%), but he did one mistake on a Russian zone entry on the PK that cost one goal.
Used on the first unit of the power-play, excellent in transition, Alatalo is having a good tournament so far, even if he has less time at 5v5 than in the National League and is often used as the seventh defenceman.
Forwards
Among forwards, Hofmann is probably the player that stood up the most. He simply came out as dominant as he was during the National League playoffs, scoring 6 goals, generating 4.25xG, by being the best offensive contributor on transitions, but also by being one of the players with the most shot assists. He’s literally flying out there in transition with a 90% in controlled exits and a 72% on controlled entries. 60% of his zone entries has led to a shot, which is really impressive, and 100% of his 11 high-danger passes did as well..
One of his linemates, Corvi, is also having a great tournament so far. Also good in transition, he leads the team with 44 shot assists and 12 successful high-danger passes that connected with a teammate. Simion complements that line pretty well and it’s no surprise that they’ve been the Swiss’ best line so far in terms of possession, with over 60% corsi and over 65 xG%.
Hischier has been a steady presence so far and though we were a bit skeptical of the association with Kurashev at first, Hischier turned into a shooter more to finish plays on that line, while still producing 1.75 xAssists, the second biggest amount behind Corvi. With a 65% corsi and 60 xGF%, the duo is controlling the game, no matter who is on their other wing, Ambühl or a more physical Herzog.
As offense often works in pair, the third association has been around Andrighetto and Meier. The San Jose Sharks player has been the second biggest offensive driver behind Hofmann, with 13% of all xG Contribution to be put to his credit. He is also second with 3.42xG on which he scored 4 goals. To his 41 shot attempts, he also added 20 shot assists. Andrighetto ranks third for the amount of shots taken, though he is only fifth for the xG produced with 1.69xG, and 2 goals. The Zürich player has been very important in driving that second Power Play unit. Vermin came in late to center that line but manages to keep up so far and while they have posted the worst possession metrics among forwards, it is still above 55% of corsi or expected goals… So, not a problem.
Finally, the Swiss secret weapon could be in their fourth line and the Bertschy-Scherwey association. Bertschy has been flying the last 10 days. Despite that 4th line role, he ranks 2nd for potential xG created in transition and 4th for xG Contribution, Scherwey being 5th. Scherwey is above 65 xGF% at 5v5 and also drawn 4 penalties while not taking any, the best differential of the team. Again, whether Herzog, Praplan or Rod completes that line, it is working very well.
Our expected line-up
According to Marc-André Berset, all players were on the ice yesterday and should be available for the coaching staff, which is a great news.
Based on what we’ve seen so far in the tournament and how Fischer used his players, find the line-up we expect to see today against the Germans.
We expect to see Genoni between the pipes, as he has often delivered when needed, both with his teams (Davos, Bern or Zug) in the National League or with the National Team. His last game was very strong when Berra was shaky against Great-Britain, enough to put back Genoni in the starter role.
Genoni
On defence, Geisser and Diaz have been a solid pairing, but Müller posted good numbers, in transition or in possession in the 4 games he played. If Geisser isn’t 100% healthy, Müller will probably take his spot on the roster. Or should Alatalo play with Diaz and Müller as 7th defenceman? Or should Geisser still be dressed and Müller in the press-box? It could probably depend on how the coaching staff sees the upcoming game. Will Switzerland need to protect a lead or chase one? Protect it is more likely.
Geisser - Diaz
Siegenthaler - Loeffel
Moser - Untersander
Alatalo
Among the forwards, there have been locks in the line-up that played all games: Hischier, Meier, Kurashev, Hofmann, Corvi, Bertschy, Scherwey, Ambühl and Andrighetto. Simion would probably have played all games if he hadn’t been injured, as his line with Hofmann and Corvi has probably been the most constant at providing offence in all games (exhibition games included).
Among the five remaining players (Rod, Herzog, Mottet, Praplan and Vermin), Rod, Vermin and Herzog seem to have the coach’s favor in our view, thanks to their role and potential use on the penalty-kill, and should play in the coming game against Germany:
Kurashev - Hischier - Ambühl
Hofmann - Corvi - Simion
Andrighetto - Vermin - Meier
Scherwey - Bertschy - Herzog
Rod
More about Germany on the next paper here.
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Find more statistics tracked by Thibaud on his Tableau’s page here (for both Switzerland and Germany): https://public.tableau.com/profile/thibaud.chatel#!/vizhome/WorldChampionship2021/GameReport