Swiss vs. Sweden - Game 3
As much as the score from the game against Denmark could have let us think that both teams were close (they weren’t, see our recap here), the score from this game can also be somewhat misleading. Yes, Sweden was the best team on the ice, but not as the 7-goals advantage may indicate.
If we said that the last game was perfect for a coach (lots of chances for, pretty much nothing against), this one was a nightmare. If Sweden seemed a step above Switzerland, they scored 7 times on 33 shots on goal and capitalized on most opportunities. After 10’, they already had two goals. They chased Genoni, Switzerland’s preferred starting goalie, as he let 4 goals in on 15 shots after 30 minutes.
Fischer and his staff will need to adjust as they’ll be playing two direct opponents in the two coming games, but the score is not as worrying as it may indicate. Now that it has been pretty much announced that the Swiss team shouldn’t count on any NHL player joining the team, it’ll also be interesting to see how the whole staff will handle the line-up. Rod replaced Vermin on the third line and penalty-kill, and mostly played with Kurashev and Andrighetto at 5v5.
First period
Contrarily to the first games, Fischer didn’t start with his fourth line, but sent the new first line on the ice (Meier - Hischier - Ambühl). On the faceoff lost, both Meier and Ambühl directly put pressure on the Swedish defence, retrieved the puck and drew a penalty, after 12 seconds.
In the first game against the Czech Republic, Switzerland was able to score a few times thanks to the vision of its top players able to find their players through high-danger and Royal Road passes. After 16 seconds, Corvi found Kurashev through Sweden’s box, but Reideborn made the perfect read on that play and stopped the shot. In the next shift, and on a zone entry, Hischier found Corvi as a support in the high-slot, but his shot was blocked. According to Thibaud’s tracking, these were the two best chances for the Swiss players in the first period.
After Sweden killed the first penalty, they began putting pressure on the Swiss defence. As Ambühl did a few minutes earlier, they were able to draw penalty on a sequence where they retrieved the puck in the offensive zone, but the Swiss penalty-kill was able to keep them on the outside. The Swedes kept pushing after Alatalo came back on the ice and generated their most dangerous chance of the period thanks to their forecheck, on a shift where they retrieved the puck twice. Lindberg found Lindbohm in the slot with a pass from behind the net, but Genoni made the stop. On the following shift starting in the Swiss defense zone, Switzerland was unable to get out of its zone and thanks to a constant pressure, Sweden was able to keep the puck and to score on a tip from Froden.
85 seconds later, Kempe beat Genoni again, on a perfectly placed shot on the glove side right after the zone entry, as he used Diaz as a screen. The Swiss captain was a bit too passive on the sequence, as Kempe was alone and Moser had him covered. At 10:00, Sweden took a 2-goal lead and never looked back.
After that goal, Switzerland was better and finally able to get out of its zone more cleanly, keep the puck in the offensive zone and generate some chances and notably on a rush by Hofmann or on a nice feed from Andrighetto to Alatalo through the Swede defense. Both missed the net. Corvi found the crossbar on a well-placed shot.
Finally, Sweden’s aggressiveness on the forecheck really made the difference in the first period, causing 7 turnovers in the offensive zone, for just 1 for Switzerland on the other side. Thanks to that forecheck, they drew their lone penalty, generated their best chance and scored their first goal.
After 20 minutes: 0.60 xG for Switzerland, 0.46 xG for Sweden
Second period
At 4v4 at the beginning of the period, Hischier found Untersander with a high-danger pass, but the Bern’s player missed the net, for what will be one of the best chances of the period for Switzerland.
The period also started with a penalty, this time against Diaz. And the Swedes scored one minute later, on a play where Rod took himself out of play and freed some space behind him. Lundkvist found Olofsson, a power-play specialist, for a perfect shot, top-shelf.
After that 3-0, the Hofmann line had a few chances in the offensive zone. On a sequence that started with a zone entry in control from Hofmann and Corvi, Hofmann had two good chances, the first on a feed from Simion from behind the net and the second on a feed from Corvi, opening up the net but near the goal line with an almost impossible angle. On that sequence, the Switzerland team generated a good proportion of its chances during the period. At that moment, the xG race was in Switzerland’s (slight) advantage.
Until the 29th minute, where in several minutes, the Swedes got their best chances and killed the game with another goal. It all started on a bad turnover from Moser in the neutral zone and a bad defensive read, where he left a 2-on-1 behind him. Lindholm missed. On the sequence that followed, After a 50-second shift and pressured by two Untersander dumped the puck out of the zone. On the quick breakout from Sweden that followed, Untersander left a pretty big gap at the blueline as Froden gained the zone. Shooting from the faceoff dot, he scored on the rush on a chance that would have been normally stopped by Genoni.
Right after the goalie change, Nyffeler was immediately challenged, on two rushes and on a play where the Swedes retrieved the puck on the forecheck and connected with a high-danger pass to the slot.
Outside of a few chances and sequences, Switzerland was unable to maintain sustained periods of pressure in Sweden’s zone. After 40 minutes, only 36% of entries were controlled. That’s too low.
After 40 minutes: 1.01 xG for Switzerland, 1.45 xG for Sweden
Third period
It’s always hard to draw anything from such periods. Switzerland had the best chances and did not score, meanwhile the Swedes converted theirs to increase their lead up to 7. It’s … just one of these games.
After 60 minutes: 2.44 xG for Switzerland, 2.47 xG for Sweden
By the numbers
All metrics point to a close game, if pucks hadn’t gone in the Swiss net like crazy. All situations, the shot attempts are 56-54 for Sweden. 13-11 scoring chances and 6-4 high danger chances for Switzerland. At 5v5. the Swedes held a slight advantage with 1.30xG to 1.19 but they scored… 5 goals out of it…
The Swiss team got the only 2 rebounds of the game and created more danger from walk-in plays and high-danger chances. But one sign of how the game shaped out can be found in the rushes. Sweden created twice as much off the rush than the Swiss: 17 shot attempts to 9 and 0.57xG to 0.29.
Transition
In those games, the last minutes when the leading team play slower tend to falsify the stats a bit. The Swiss ends with 44% controlled entries but they were lower after 40mn, as we mentioned, when the game was still kind of not over...
Sweden ends at 47%, but they managed to get rushes though when Swiss forecheckers were caught too deep in the offensive zone, offering space and speed for a Swede to speed over the neutral zone and attack the blue line full gas. The neutral zone trap was successful against the Czech and deadly for Denmark, but here Switzerland got caught wanting to be greedy and it offered chances to set up offensively for Sweden.
Goaltenders
Rough night for the goalies. Genoni allowed 2.92 goals above expectation, with a low 53% shot control. He was screened on the first three goals but no miracle saves was made.
Nyffeler allowed 1.64 goals above expectation despite being rather solid otherwise in his interventions.
Offensive contribution
Still not sure moving Andrighetto was the right thing to do. Hischier-Meier-Ambühl didn’t seem high-talent enough as a line to make a difference. Meier tried a bit by himself and then turned into an angry Hulk. Which means Hofmann-Corvi were a bit alone tonight to create offense all game long. Hofmann was credited with 0.50xG Contribution out of the 1.33xG for his team. That a massive 38% share. Next one is Corvi with 12%. For reference, best players over a season are around 12%.
Ambühl with 0.63xG on his 3 attempts, thanks to 1 rebound. Hofmann 0.61xG in 9 attempts (he leads the team in that department), also leading with 2 rush scoring chances. Hischier had 0 shot but 3 shot assists worth 0.27xG, which puts him second in the team behind Andrighetto and his 0.40xAssists.
Time to move on now, forget a night where everything went wrong and focus on the positive. In three games, Switzerland has been outplaying their opponents 10.9xG to 5.3 but only has a -3 goals difference in return. Things will adjust for the better.
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Find more statistics tracked by Thibaud on his Tableau’s page here: https://public.tableau.com/profile/thibaud.chatel#!/vizhome/WorldChampionship2021/GameReport