Welcome to our daily games preview.
This article is published in the morning of every game day, offering our previews and probabilities for each games, as well as our betting advices.
This article is written based on the latest news in terms of line-ups, injuries and betting odds at the time of the publication. It may change at the last minute of course.
Reminder: To read about our model and how we project players and teams, it’s here
Reminder: To read about our betting model and guide, it’s here
WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY ?
Four games to launch the season.
Ajoie will host Bienne for starters. Tim Wolf will start in nets for Ajoie and only Bastien Pouilly is reporting missing. For Bienne, if Damien Brunner or Alexander Yakovenko were doubtful, they should be here. Enough to give a nice 59.2% probability of winning for Bienne.
Betting: Nahhh too risky for Ajoie and not enough money to make with Bienne
Bern hosts Fribourg for their debut. Dominik Kahun will play and Dustin Jeffrey should be on as well. Fribourg is missing Mauro Dufner, who is their 4th best player in our model so that hurts a bit. In the end Bern gets a slight advantage thanks to home ice.
Betting: nahhhhhhhh The model says no, even with Bern at 2.35 in regulation. Not enough money for a game that close. At 2.5 for Bern the model would say go.
Zug is putting his title in play tonight against a remodeled Davos squad. Zug is playing at home but is missing Samuel Kreis, their top defenceman in our model, and Yannick Zehnder. No much info on Davos but let’s assume everyone is ready and their best goaltender (Aeschlimann) plays. Zug is still favored here to win it.
Betting: Nahhhhhh Zug odds are ridiculous below 2 and Davos’ odds is wayyy to high to risk it according to the model
Finally, Zurich welcomes Geneve in a rematch of last year’s semifinal. Geneve is missing a lot of players, Maurer, Le Coultre and Mercier in defence, Richard and Miranda upfront. Zurich is without Morant, Chris Baltisberger and both Andrighetto and Hollenstein are uncertain…
Zurich gets a nice cushion of 56.7% in our game probabilities WITH Andrighetto and Hollenstein. WITHOUT them, it’s down to 52% Zurich.
Betting: Geneve. Yes. I have them at 2.9 for a win in regulation and 43.3% chances (or 48% without Andrighetto and Hollenstein) of winning is enough to risk it. If you read our betting guide, you saw that sometimes the best expected value is on the underdog.
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