Zug vs Rapperswil-Jona Series Preview
Can Rappi do it again?
On paper, having Zug, Zurich and Geneva in the final four of this NLA season 2020-21 is no surprise. They combine the best rosters in the league, with strength at every positions. But the fourth team still alive is, however, a surprise. All of the challengers, Lausanne, Lugano, Fribourg-Gottéron, Bienne or even Bern, are now dusting out their golf equipment for the long summer to come.
Not Rapperswil-Jona.
The Lakers are better than you think. If the team coached by Jeff Tomlinson was often categorized as one of the “little guys” with Langnau and Ambri-Piotta, they are, in fact, not. And would have probably been closer to the top 8 if Melvin Nyffeler had not missed almost two months.
The first reason is an offense fully oriented toward creating quality chances. At 5v5 this season, Rappi ranked 11th for shot attempts by 60mn, but 6th for Expected goals! Looking at their offensive heatmap above, the pattern of blue (less shots than league average) at the points and the top of the circles, contrasts with the red (more shots than league average) in the high-danger area in front of the net. And you should know that Rappi finished the season 3rd in the league for scoring chances created off the rush.
Technically, it means that, instead of shooting quickly after zone entry, and hope for a rebound, the forwards tend to skate down the zone and make an additional pass to a teammate on the other side of the ice, forcing the goalie to move or even opening the net wide. We have seen those play a hundred times this season from Kevin Clark and Roman Cervenka. Being picky on shot selection also improved their shooting%, ending 4th in the league.
By the way, did you know that Kevin Clark produced the most Expected Goals this season? 21.6xG on which he scored 23 goals. And the most baffling stat is that the second best player in the league was Carl Klingberg at… 16.9xG. Close to 5xG less than Clark. Andrigettho, Hollenstein or Boedker, all follow around 16xG.
However, Rapperswil will face a Zug defense used to break up that kind of plays. Zug was the best defense in Expected Goals allowed and their heatmap shows how well they protected the high-danger area in front of their net. They also prevented scoring chances from passing plays better than the league average. So the task ahead for Rappi will be an immense challenge.
What Zug will have to do
The irony is, Zug is probably the team looking the most like Rappi offensively. “Just” 6th in the league for shot attempts per 60mn, Zug was first in Expected Goals created. Their heatmap shows how much Zug is also focused on creating quality chances, instead of firing from all guns. One metric shows that dedication to quality in particular: how Zug manages its rushes. The team was only 10th for the share of shots coming off the rush (24.4%), but was 2nd for scoring chances created off the rush. A rush by Zug? Don’t expect a shot from outside the circles, but more probably a passing play inside the slot. Just like Rappi…
But where Tomlinson men will face the best defense in the league, Zug forwards should have an easier task ahead. That defensive squad only ranked 10th this season in shots or Expected Goals prevention. However, in these Playoffs, Rappi has played a much tighter style of defense, closing their slot firmly and pushing Biel or Lugano to the outside, where any amount of shots would scare Nyffeler. Especially if Rappy can open the score, we should expect to see Egli, Profico and co play team fortress again.
What about Special Units?
Even while defending a lot, Rapperswil did not allow many penalties against Lugano, even provoking more from the other side. That is good as Zug Power play should not be given the occasion to be set in motion as it ranked 1st this season for Expected Goals created and 3rd for goals. Rappi Penalty Kill was 6th for Expected goals allowed but 10th for goals as goalies didn’t hold up their part of the job there.
On the other side, Rappi Power Play relies a lot on point shots from Egli or Profico, while waiting for another one puck touch play from Cervenka and Clark. But as Zug Penalty Kill is only average, both units should level out here and could give an edge to the Lakers.
Who will win?
Both of us (Cédric and Thibaud) have our own prediction model. Every model is different and is based on what its author deemed relevant to include, normally what historically leads to winning hockey games. One main difference here is that Cédric is using team performance metrics and Thibaud is using player values.
Player value in hockey can be measured with “all-in one” stats like WAR, GAR or such. In a league with less data available, I’m using Win Shares, a stat that uses offensive and defensive performances from the last 3 seasons to assess how many wins a player brings to his team over a full season. In the graphs below, you can see the Win Shares value of each player and where in the league that player ranks.
Here is Zug roster as it should be on Sunday. Seven forwards rank in the top tiers (above 66th percentile) of the league for Win Shares, Gregory Hoffman standing at the very top while being worth 3.2 wins. And the “bad students” Albrecht, Bachofner or Leuenberger are all above the 40th, so nothing to be ashamed of.
At the blue line, Raphael Diaz ranks at the 98th percentile among defensemen and Alatalo at the 93th. Like the forwards lines, that defensive squad is very deep, the only interrogation would be how much time on ice Claudio Cadonau is given.
Finally, Leonardo Genoni is of course one of the top name in the league, even if this season he seemed “just” above average, providing for instance a Quality start (allowing less goals than expected) just 50% of the time. His complete game will certainly help against the various situations Rappi could create around his net. While being great against rushes, he struggles if the puck goes through the royal road in front of him, something Rappi tends to do as we saw.
In the other net stands the current hero of a team. Beyond their well executed “the underdog traps the favorite into a game they don’t want to play” plan, Rapperswil still had to rely on a masterpiece performance from Melvin Nyffeler in the previous rounds. Even more than this season, where he managed to allow less goals then expected while playing behind the defense we described earlier, and provided a Quality start 62% of the time, the 3rd best performance in the league. To put it into perspective, by our numbers, his back-ups have allowed close to 20 goals above expectations, enough to sink Rappi to the 10th seat in the standings. Like Genoni, Nyffeler has a well rounded game and do not fear many situations, as long as his defense stays tight.
When united, Moses-Cervenka-Clark might have been the most dangerous line in the league as those three can find each other at full speed with their eyes closed. Cervenka and Clark both belong to the top 10% forwards of the league and Rowe, Lehmann or Moses are decent top6 players. The middle guys, Schweri, Eggenberger, Loosli and Wick all stepped up and had a great series against Lugano, but the real drop in talent happens with the fourth line and Zug could press hard here with the last change on home ice.
It is the same story at the blue line. Dominik Egli is playing like a number one defenseman, Daniel Vukovic is playing 25mn so far these playoffs and his ability to drive possession on both ends is precious. Profico or Jelovac are good, rounded players and our model loves Mauro Dufner for his goal prevention ability but he didn’t play much so far.
Prediction
Despite all the good things we have said about Rapperswil, based on those current rosters, Zug is favoured to win at 62.2%, and there’s no miracle addition, like Descloux for Geneva, that could swing those odds the other way. If Genoni was injured for instance, Zug would only drop to 61.2%.
Cédric’s model gives Zug an even bigger edge with a 82.3% probability of winning the series. Realistically, that is probably closer to what we expect to happen.
So, can Rappi do it again?