Zug vs Rapperswil-Jona - Game 1
So, it took 35 minutes for Zug to break Melvin Nyffeler bubble, one he had been building for the last seven playoffs games.
There is something in sport called “Regression to the mean”. It is when a player, or a team, is performing either way above their natural level, or way under. At some point, with a larger number of games, that player or team WILL go back to their natural level.
For instance, in hockey, no goaltender can keep making close to 95% of save. That is unheard of. Which means, at some point, some goals will go in. Some that goaltender would have stopped the game before.
It feels like exactly what happened in that first period for Melvin Nyffeler. Three goals allowed for a bit less than 1 Expected Goal (xG) faced. And the shots from Zehnder or Abdelkader felt like some he would have stopped the round before. Or that nice rebound falling into Martschini stick was the puck rolling for the forward and not for him.
But overall we saw two teams playing exactly like we thought they would. Zug attacked and Rapperswil waited. But Zug pushed harder than Biel or Lugano had done. The forwards in blue moved a lot in the offensive zone, skating and crossing paths, forcing defensemen qui break the box and opening passing lanes. If Zug wasn’t crushing Rappi at that point, they were at least completely confiscating the puck.
Then Rappi, with just 0.05xG after 15 minutes, got two huge 2v1 opportunities while being shorthanded, followed by another chance later in the period. And despite the 3-0 score, in terms of chances created, the game was suddenly closer. If Nyffeler had made the saves, we would have seen a scenario that smiled to Rappi before.
Moreover, in the second period, Cervenka and Clark did what they are used to do and scored on a high-danger passing play from behind the net. But then, Klingberg beat Nyffeler on another clean shot before Kovar finished his night. The period ended at 2.06xG to 1.57 for Zug but the game was over.
Rappi still played a strong third period, despite the effect the score had on the game, and Zug resting his top players, the away team created some good chances using its traditional weapons and Genoni had to remain sharp to avoid any temptations of a come back.
Zug wins this one rather easily. But another team has been there before…
Final count gives 3.06xG to Zug, compared to 2.64 for Rapperswil. Zug also had the upper hand at 5v5 (2.23 to 1.72) but the difference is not huge, and historically means Zug had just 53% probability of winning the game.
One good thing for Zug is that they scored through multiple scenarios: 1 Walk-in (skating into the slot), 2 high-danger passes, 1 rebound, etc.
Zug is such a dynamic offensive team for a reason: they move in control of the puck. Here again they posted a great 57% controlled zone entries, versus 45% for Rappi.
So, Nyffeler allowed 3.29 goals above expectation, very rough night, also just controlling 57% of the shots he faced (league average is at 66%).
Genoni was strong on the other end, with 80% shots control and he saved 1.80 goals.
Bader actually saved 0.34 goal in his 25mn in net.
Some player stats: all stats can be found here https://public.tableau.com/profile/thibaud.chatel#!/vizhome/NLAPlayoffs2021/GameReport?publish=yes
Clark scored and created 0.46xG for Rappi.
Senteler led Zug with 0.64xG, Abdelkader scored 2 goals on his 0.42xG.
6 shots for Hofmann but just 0.25xG.
Senteler also led his team on xG Contribution, and Potential xG from transition plays with his 3/4 on exits and 6/6 on entries !
