WC Preview - G & D - Switzerland
We meet again, for the final push of the season as we will cover the Swiss National team at the upcoming World Championships 2021. With a round-robin that includes the Czech Republic, Denmark, Sweden, Russia, Slovakia, Belarus and Great-Britain, the squad coached by Patrick Fischer should be able to reach the quarterfinals.
During the competition, we will offer the same kind of analysis as we did during the NL playoffs, using data from our own tracking tools. But first, let’s look at the extended squad (28 players: 3 goaltenders, 10 defensemen and 15 forwards).
Goaltenders
Berra or Genoni in the nets? We are used to it. But Nyffeler will play his first World Championships. The million-dollar question would have been about Gauthier Descloux: where could he have fit in this group? Geneva’s goaltender might have been the best at his position this season in NL, and probably number two here. In a season where the number of goals significantly increased (0.6 more goals per game), Descloux found a way to “save” almost 7 goals to his team. Only Niklas Schlegel saved more among starters with 10. Stephan saved 3, Nyffeler 3 in 29 games and Genoni allowed 2 goals above expectations. But we all know how Zug’s goalie played in the playoffs and showed everyone who was the boss.
33 years old Genoni is not slowing down. By looking at his performances in terms of Win Shares (number of wins a player brought his team over a 50 games season), he is well established among the elite of the league. Even if he only produced a “Quality start'“ (game where he allowed less goals than expected) 50% of the time this season, let’s remember he was superhuman when it mattered the most: during the playoffs.
The usual number two is Reto Berra. But should he be? It is less certain. Fribourg’s goalie has had a glass half full season where he allowed 8 more goals than expected, and produced a Quality Start only 48% of the time. Reputation and experience are on his side but the reality has been less pretty lately.
Number three and new to the show, Melvin Nyffeler is surfing on his great playoffs to earn his first call. A bit undermined by the league’s stats, Nyfeller stood up in our tracking by saving goals to Rapperswil-Jona, while his back-ups allowed 21 more goals than expected in 26 games… Nyffeler also produced a Quality Start 62% of the time this season, almost two third of the games, a reliable safety net.
Defensemen
At the blue line, Fischer sent Egli and Fora home this week. Heldner made the cut to be part of the 10 defensemen going to Riga. To give you an overview of the roster, we will use the data tracked by Thibaud those last few seasons to evaluate players on multiples aspects of the game: transition, play bulding (xG Contribution), shot and shot assists (the last pass before a shot).
Alatalo
First World Championships with the Swiss jersey for Santeri Alatalo, who played for Finland at the junior level. It represents of course a significant addition for the defensive squad. The recently crowned champion has been playing better and better the last few seasons as his Win Shares show. He is among the best offensively and defensively, playing in all situations. His impact on transition, play building and in offensive zone make him a true all-around defenseman.
Diaz
An Alatalo-Diaz pairing? Last week-end, Patrick Fischer tried a lot of different combinations, but if he is looking for automatisms, those two and Tobias Geisser know each others pretty well. Raphael Diaz remains, at 35 years old, one or even the best defenseman in NL. His Win Shares is at the 99th percentile, only topped by Henrik Tömmernes from Geneva. With the 98th percentile on defense and the 96th on offense, his impact on both sides of the ice is undeniable. Transition and play building are less elite but Diaz likes to do things himself as his shooting and shot assists show.
Frick
Third straight Worlds for Frick, coming out of one of his best seasons in NL, and the one where he had the biggest responsibilities for Lausanne. Used in all situations, his versatility is an asset, but his play at 5v5 is probably the most attractive things for Fischer. Very safe in his zone, he becomes really interesting when he can carry the puck into the neutral zone and to the offensive zone. There, he is not a shooter but can make passes for his teammates.
Geisser
Third (future-ex?) Zug player, Tobias Geisser revealed himself this season, playing alongside Diaz for most of it before flying on his own wings, including in the playoffs. Well involved on both sides of the ice, he is a master on transition and play building. Not a shooter but he is feeding passes to his teammates in the offensive zone. Would that be enough to earn a top-6 spot? Maybe not, but close enough. The “easier” games should allow us to see him on the ice.
Heldner
After the Alatalo-Diaz duo, the Frick-Heldner one? On the 57 games played by Lausanne this season, both played… 57 times together on the starting line-up. Maybe THE surprise in that 28 players list but Heldner just had the best season of his career. His transitions improved, he defends well against the rush and overall. He’s also the only right-handed defenceman with such a profile, which could help him get some minutes, but his role should be minimal.
Loeffel
One thing for sure, the team is not short on “all-around” defensemen in their thirties… Romain Loeffel comes out of a half satisfying season with Lugano but elevated his play during the playoffs. His Win Shares are declining since his arrival in Ticcino but he remains among the top10 percent in the league for transition, shots and shot assists. His passing skills on breakout can unlock closed situations in the neutral zone and he can act as a sharp shooter on the power-play.
Moser
The player everybody talks about. Moser revealed himself offensively to the league with his extraordinary start of the season, attracting himself the eyes of the NHL, again. His individual production fell down back to earth afterward but the young man earned his stripes by his impressive two-way game and his overall impact on puck possession. He has a great first pass but his impact then diminishes as the play progresses and his offensive zone play remains light. In a specific role, he should be near the top-4, without a doubt.
Müller
For the NHL players, we were able to used the profiles created by JFresh Hockey (find him on Twitter, Substack and on EP Rinkside).
Müller is, like Siegenthaler, a rather defensive defenseman. Even in Sweden this season, he was used on the penalty-kill but almost didn’t see any power-play time. However, while Siegenthaler numbers are great in terms of defensive impact, Müller’s remain rather average. Enough to put him lower on the depth chart?
For his SHL stats, you can find them on Svengelska Hockey, a site created by Zach Ellenthal.
Siegenthaler
Made available since his trade to the New Jersey Devils, Jonas Siegenthaler has a singular profile in this list due to his defensive skills. According to several models, his defensive impact is certain, enough to use him as a specialist of the genre, and to be a first choice on the penalty-kill.
Untersander
Another all-around defenseman in his thirties… Like Loeffel, Ramon Untersander sees his Win Shares decrease over the seasons, not helped by his multiples injuries. His transition game remains elite, and he is a shooter in the offensive zone, something that could play against him in a context where his forwards will be better shooters than usual.
Our top-6 for when it will matter
The round-robin should allow every players to see some ice but what will be the line-up for the quarterfinals? Here is our selection:
Alatalo - Diaz
Siegenthaler - Moser
Frick - Loeffel
Not dressed: Geisser, Müller, Untersander, Heldner.